RRN Report Series-1

Conflict and Food Security in Nepal:
A Preliminary Analysis

David Seddon & Jagannath Adhikari

S U M M A R Y

This research report examines how and to what extent the on-going political conflict in Nepal has been affecting food security in Nepal. The analysis has been done in the light of the historical-political and economic context of the country. The various ways a conflict could affect food security have first been discussed. The analysis then proceeds by examining how far these factors have led to a decline in food availability and access to food, resulting in increased malnutrition, hunger and even death from starvation. But the study notes the lack of evidence to support such a conclusion of severe food insecurity situations like hunger deaths.

The Introduction begins by outlining the parameters of the study. It then outlines the key concerns which have given rise to the study and which it will try to address. In Nepal the livelihoods of the majority of the rural population are often vulnerable and insecure, and a key concern is that the situation has been worsened by the conflict. Particular concerns are on the impact of conflict on production, stores and stocks of food, restrictions on the mobility of people and transportation of food leading to the physical unavailability of food, disturbances in the government distribution system, and declines in income leading to loss of purchasing power of food or the exchange entitlements

Chapter Two develops a political economic framework for the analysis of food security, which includes a livelihoods component permitting the examination of the range of constraints and opportunities operating on the livelihood strategies of households and individuals. In Chapter Three, the food security situation and general trends prior to the conflict are examined and the extent to which a substantial proportion of the rural population lives 'in normal times' in considerable food insecurity is revealed. The conventional wisdom is that 'trends' within the food economy of Nepal over the last thirty years have been towards greater food insecurity for the large majority of the rural population. Evidence of this is examined, including a discussion of past social systems and safety nets - now eroded - and their effectiveness, and the evolution of the agrarian system over the last half century.

Chapter Four provides a historical account of the development of the current conflict, noting the preceding struggle against the Panchayat system and the perceived failure of democratic government since 1990 to achieve any real headway in addressing Nepal's continuing economic underdevelopment and deep-seated social inequalities. The report notes that the Maoists claim to have prepared for (1994-96), launched (1996) and undertaken (1996-2003) their People's War in response to this failure of development.

Chapter Five examines rural livelihoods and insecurity in more detail, beginning by outlining the broad features of rural livelihoods in the 1990s prior to the start of the conflict, and introducing the broader concept of 'security'. For the majority of Nepalis in rural areas, livelihoods are risky and uncertain at the best of times; they are also highly dependent on a nexus of social relationships with others, both in their immediate locality and beyond, and on their ability (or lack of it) to gain control of and access to resources and income generating opportunities in the public and the private sectors.

Chapter Six explicitly addresses the relationship between conflict and food security, starting by giving examples of the effects of different types of action by Maoist and security forces. The authors suggest that food production has been adversely affected by the conflict to a limited extent, and then discusses in detail a report on the displacement of small landowners and the impact of this displacement on agricultural production. The impact of the conflict on other factors affecting food security (food stocks and stores, food distribution) is also considered. The authors illustrate these specific problems by examining the case of Upper Karnali, through a detailed case study, and individual household studies.

The last concluding chapter assesses the ability of the study to address the questions raised in the introduction, and delineates the broad features of change brought about by the conflict. The study points out that:

• Food insecurity exists in several regions of Nepal, but it is unclear to what extent this is a result of the conflict.
  
• The conflict has disrupted local economies and this may be significantly affecting rural livelihoods.
  
• The food security situation is likely to be very precarious in remote mountain regions such as Mugu district and other parts of Upper Karnali.
  
• There is a growing recognition that the conflict-affected areas are those most in need of development assistance, but there is evidence to suggest that there have been high levels of conflict in those areas where poverty and deprivation are prevalent, rather than that the conflict has created these disadvantages.
  
• The conflict has affected different regions, and different sectors of the population, in different ways.
  " Political insecurity has been added to the environmental and economic insecurity generally experience by poor rural populations, thus increasing vulnerability.
  
• The conflict has affected traditional livelihood opportunities through decreasing mobility, market activity and employment opportunities.
  
• The restrictions on the movement of goods and people have increased the self-reliance of rural areas, particularly of the remoter rural areas, and de-linked them from the wider market economy. This will have the effect of increasing food insecurity in areas where both local food production and purchasing power are weak.
  
• In some areas, food production has declined.
  
• Food distribution has been disrupted, particularly affecting already vulnerable regions.
  
• The conflict has accelerated the rural exodus. Whilst internal displacement is causing food insecurity in some areas, in other regions, such as Upper Karnali, food insecurity is causing migration.

The report concludes that the fear of war has made life more uncertain for many rural populations, but at the same time, the structural problems of Nepal's economy as a whole, causing poverty and food insecurity, persist.

Interested readers can contact RRN at pkala@rrn.org.np or phone 4415418 for a copy of the report.

The price of a copy for organisations and individuals is NRs. 250 and NRs. 150 respectively, while the price for abroad is US$ 10
including shipping.